Retrenchment 1969 - 1971

Several things happened simultaneously during the time identified here as the "retrenchment" period. 

First, large aerospace cutbacks occurred, creating unemployment problems for some segments of the engineering profession. Thousands of engineers and scientists, including many Ph.D.s, lost their jobs. Many of them remained unemployed for long periods of time.  Newspapers ran articles about unemployed engineers and scientists working as welders, rug salesmen, TV repair-men, bartenders, handymen, and operators of hot dog stands.  Second, newly graduated Ph.D.s in physics, chemistry, and mathematics began having difficulty getting jobs of their choice. Also, there were more new elementary and secondary school teachers than were needed, and many could not find jobs.  Third, the 1970 census showed that the number of young people in the college-age group was going to peak in the early 1980s and would decline thereafter, casting a pall on the prospects of those who were looking forward to university teaching careers.  Fourth, the U.S. economy entered a period of economic recession, with the result that employers cut back on expenditures and postponed hiring new people. All of these events received a high level of media exposure, which produced an exaggerated and misleading picture of the employment picture for engineers.  The cumulative effects of these events on engineering education were drastic. Undergraduate enrollments plummeted but then recovered as it became apparent that the adverse publicity had been substantially misleading.

Other developments of the period were the termination of science development programs by the National Science Foundation (NSF), virtual cessation of training grants, and the emergence of an increasingly restrictive climate toward the funding of university research. The NSF published a report in 1969 stating that an oversupply of science and engineering doctorates by 1980 appeared unlikely; two years later NSF produced another report reversing its earlier opinion, this time projecting that Ph.D. production by 1980 would result in an oversupply of 40 percent for engineers. The 1971 NSF projection along with the 1966 Goals Study projection both sets of projections far overshot the mark.

Dear Progressive from Chicago

You mentioned that you taught music in Chicago for several years.  I thought if God couldn't teach the foolishness of Progressive ways in Chicago I had no hope in SW MO.

Several things have caused me to rethink my World View.  I think it is most concisely stated as “The Road to Hell is paved with good intentions.”

I consider the justification for this worldview to follow naturally from two scientific/technical papers.

 The first is an article which appeared in the December 13, 1968, issue of Science Magazine by Garrett Hardin.  This article was a part of a movement creating Earth Day and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The second is an article which appeared in MIT’s Technology Review “The Counter-intuitive Behavior of Social Systems” by Jay W. Forrester the founder of Systems Dynamics at MIT.

The first paper is known to everybody.  I was shocked to learn the limited availability of the second.  I saw it in MIT’s Technology Review.  The citation for the article is

Jay W. Forrester, "Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems", 
Technology Review, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jan. 1971, pp. 52-68.

Professor Forrester had a long and distinguished career at MIT.  In 1956, Forrester moved to the MIT Sloan School of Management where he is currently Germeshausen Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer. In 1961, he wrote about the expanding effects down the supply chains due to fluctuations in demand, thenceforth known as the "Forrester effect" or Bull whip effect.   In 1982, he received the IEEE Computer Pioneer Award.  In 1995, he was made a Fellow of the Computer History Museum for his perfecting of core memory technology into a practical computer memory device; for fundamental contributions to early computer systems design and development. In 2006, he was inducted into the Operational Research Hall of Fame.

Forrester is the founder of system dynamics which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in dynamic systems. Industrial Dynamics was the first book Forrester wrote using system dynamics to analyze industrial business cycles. Several years later, interactions with former Boston Mayor John F. Collins led Forrester to write Urban Dynamics, which sparked an ongoing debate on the feasibility of modeling broader social problems.

The urban dynamics model attracted the attention of urban planners around the world, eventually leading Forrester to meet a founder of the Club of Rome. He later met with the Club of Rome to discuss issues surrounding global sustainability; the book World Dynamics followed. World  Dynamics took on modeling the complex interactions of the world economy, population and ecology, which understandably met with much misunderstanding (see also Donella Meadows  and Limits to Growth).

 Forrester has written several books, articles and papers. Books, a selection:

·         1961. Industrial dynamics. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.

·         1968. Principles of Systems, 2nd ed. Pegasus Communications.

·         1969. Urban Dynamics. Pegasus Communications.

·         1971. World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press.

·         1975. Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester. Pegasus Communications.

Articles and papers, a selection:

·         1958. "Industrial Dynamics--A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers.", in: Harvard Business Review, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 37–66.

·         1968, Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment.

·         1971, Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems. Also available online.

·         1989, System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years.

·         1991, The Beginning of System Dynamics.

·         1992, System Dynamics and Learner-Centered-Learning in Kindergarten through 12th Grade Education.

·         1994, Learning through Systems Dynamics as preparation for the 21st Century.

·         1996, System Dynamics and K–12 Teachers.

·         1998, Designing the Future.

·         1999, System Dynamics: the Foundation Under Systems Thinking.

A fellow graduate student at Wisconsin, Gerald O. Barney, went on to work for the Center for Naval Analyses and took a sabbatical at MIT.  The good Chinese leader learned about the methodology. Democratic Capitalists believe in Free Markets.

Both groups know of the counter-intuitive behavior of social systems 

Varieties of Democratic Welfare Capitalism

A.      The conservative regime is most often found in Catholic countries and stresses job protection and high wages in order to allow a male breadwinner to be the sole support of his family.

B.      The social democratic regime is found in the Nordic countries stresses government provision of social services and income supports to create a more egalitarian society and allow (some say require) both men and women to work.

C.      The liberal version is found in the United States and, to a lesser degree, in other Anglo-Saxon countries and tries to offer government support for those who can’t work in the job market.  It generally has looser labor laws that make it easier to hire and fire people.

Lecture 35, Course Guidebook for “Thinking about Capitalism”, Jerry Z. Muller, The Catholic University of America, The Great Courses #5665, 2008, page 143.

Italicized parenthetical was added by me.

http://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/science/social-sciences/thinking-about-capitalism.html

Gosta Esping-Anderson Model

Solomon Kullback

Solomon Kullback (1907 – 1994) was an American cryptanalyst and mathematician, who was one of the first three employees hired by William F. Friedman at the US Army's Signal Intelligence Service (SIS) in the 1930s, along with Frank Rowlett and Abraham Sinkov. He went on to a long and distinguished career at SIS and its eventual successor, the National Security Agency (NSA). Kullback was the Chief Scientist at the NSA until his retirement in 1962, whereupon he took a position at the George Washington University.

 

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When I was working for BDM (now contained in Northrop  Grumman), I had the title of Deputy Directory for Technical Guidance - Operational Test and Evaluation.  Our major project was supporting the Army's OTEA (Operational Test and Evaluation Agency).  A member of our staff was working on a doctorate in statistics under Solomon Kullback at George Washington University.  The student was using a manuscript prepared by S. Kullback.  Somehow I got a copy of the manuscript.

 

A staff member told me that an analyst at OTEA disagreed with one our sample sizing results.  I knew enough to know that if one of our results was wrong then all of our results were wrong so I checked it out.

 

Our methodology was not wrong.  I met with the analyst from OTEA.  Some face saving terminology was used.  I don't remember what it was.

 

I purchased a copy of Mathematical Theory of Communication by Claude E. Shannon and Warren Weaver (I liked Weaver's part best).  The book was published by University of Illinois Press.  The paper and/or the book were published in 1948.  I bought my copy in the early 1970s.

 

I got into information theory via Shannon's book and Kullback's manuscript.  I have found mathematical probabilities to be simple for me.

 

While talking with my brother's wife's brother, I couldn't remember Kullback's name.  I said that he was in Army communications.  Wikipedia  says he was with the Army's Signal Intelligence Service (SIS) and its eventual successor NSA.  I had no idea that Kullback retired as Chief Scientist of NSA in 1962.

Kullback's statistics and physics entropy have a lot in common.

Audrey - Your grandfather's NATO

For saving the West from the Warsaw Pact in the 1970s (a slight hyperbole), I received the Distinguished Alumni Award for Community Service from my undergraduate Alma Mater.

In the 1970s, France was not a part of the Military Structure of NATO and there were only about 11 member nations.  Newly elected President Carter launched his NATO Initiative.  General Alexander Haig, Jr., USA, was in command of Supreme Allied Command - Europe.  He was SACEUR.

I was a part of the "shadow support" for Task Force 6 - the command, control, and communications (C3) task force.

During the 1969-1971 RETRENCHMENT, I learned to write my resume.  {At this time, I envisioned going to Oxford or Cambridge, purchasing a book related to a field [X] with a famous professor [Y] not on the bottom floor, going to a room under the famous professor's, briefly studying my book, and then updating my resume to include "studied X under Y".}

Some people think that their are only two geographical areas:

1) Inside the DC Beltway, and
2) Outside the DC Beltway.

This provides no way of distinguishing the left (West) coast of the US.  Some of them think they are the top of the heap.

Some people use the following categories:

1) California cabal
2) Inside the DC Beltway,
3) Not 1) or 2)

My task officer and I did go to the University of Michigan.  We met with Dr. Daniel Teichroew of Problem Statement Language/Problem Statement Analyzer (PSL/PSA) fame.

Auerbach Reports said that only the top 15% of analysts could use PSL/PSA.  I liked it because it could handle VERY HIGH LEVEL input.

Turning 30 - Past, Present, and Future

In the past, when you turned 30 your were a nobody unless you had won the Nobel Prize in Physics.  Thirty was getting very close to when you had to have a mid-life crisis.

At present, the Baby Boomer cohort has made several changes as they pass through.  Life now begins after 40.  Levis have a scouch more room.

In the future, you will have to be 70 to run for President of the United States.  Franklin Roosevelt proved that you could be president for as long as you wanted.  Harry S Truman proved that anybody could become President.  Dwight David Eisenhower proved that the country didn't need a president until Barack Obama provided such a convincing counterexample.

At present, the United States Constitution is considered a living document.  The 35 years in the Founder's document should be reinterpreted as a mature adult.  Ronald Reagan was elected as a mature adult.  Donald J. Trump qualifies on age.  Senator Cruz should not be expected to be much more mature than Barack Obama.

Child Custody under SB 668

The child-custody provisions of SB 668 put parents on equal footing during child-custody determinations. Existing law declares a vague public policy that each minor child have “frequent and continuing contact” with both parents after they separate or divorce. What this public policy means can vary from judge to judge.

The bill replaces the vague policy, with a requirement that courts begin a custody determination with the premise that a child should spend “approximately equal time” with each parent. The court must then take into account a child’s best interest by considering 20 statutory factors that are based on current law. Finally, the bill requires courts to explain their child-custody determinations in writing.

The changes to the child-custody law are driven by well-known societal changes. For example, there are more two income households than ever.[1] Women are more likely than men to have a college degree, and women are pursuing more graduate degrees than men.[2] Forty percent of households with children have a female breadwinner, a dramatic increase since 1960.[3] Additionally, fathers have become more active in raising their children.[4]

Unfortunately, many incorrect statements and specious arguments have been made about what SB 668 says and how the bill will affect children and custody litigation. The remainder of this document identifies and responds to the common misstatements and specious arguments.

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[1] Kim Parker, Pew Research Center, 5 Facts About Today’s Fathers (June 18, 2015) available at: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/06/18/5-facts-about-todays-fathers/.

[2] Executive Office of the President of the United States, Eleven Facts About American Families and Work 10-11 (Oct. 2014), available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/eleven_facts_about_family_and_work_final.pdf .

[3] Wendy Wang, Kim Parker, and Paul Taylor, Pew Research Center, Breadwinner Moms (May 29, 2013) available at: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/29/breadwinner-moms/.

[4] Parker, supra note 1.