2004 presidential candidacy
In his 2004 bid for re-election, Bush commanded broad support in the Republican Party and did not encounter a primary challenge. He appointed Ken Mehlman as campaign manager, and Karl Rove devised a political strategy.[87] Bush and the Republican platform emphasized a strong commitment to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,[88] support for the USA PATRIOT Act,[89] a renewed shift in policy for constitutional amendments banning abortion and same-sex marriage,[88][90] reforming Social Security to create private investment accounts,[88] creation of an ownership society,[88] and opposing mandatory carbon emissions controls.[91] Bush also called for the implementation of a guest worker program for immigrants,[88] which was criticized by conservatives.[92]
The Bush campaign advertised across the U.S. against Democratic candidates, including Bush's emerging opponent, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Kerry and other Democrats attacked Bush on the Iraq War, and accused him of failing to stimulate the economy and job growth. The Bush campaign portrayed Kerry as a staunch liberal who would raise taxes and increase the size of government. The Bush campaign continuously criticized Kerry's seemingly contradictory statements on the war in Iraq,[52] and argued that Kerry lacked the decisiveness and vision necessary for success in the War on Terror.
In the election, Bush carried 31 of 50 states, receiving a total of 286 electoral votes. He won an absolute majority of the popular vote (50.7 percent to his opponent's 48.3 percent).[93] Bush's father George H.W. Bush was the previous president who won an absolute majority of the popular vote; he accomplished that feat in the 1988 election. Additionally, it was the first time since Herbert Hoover's election in 1928 that a Republican president was elected alongside re-elected Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress.
Presidency (2001–2009)
Bush had originally outlined an ambitious domestic agenda, but his priorities were significantly altered following the September 11 attacks.[94] Wars were waged in Afghanistan and Iraq, and there were significant domestic debates regarding immigration, healthcare, Social Security, economic policy, and treatment of terrorist detainees. Over an eight-year period, Bush's once-high approval ratings[95] steadily declined, while his disapproval numbers increased significantly.[96] In 2007, the United States entered the longest post-World War II recession.[97]
Economic policy
Bush took office during a period of economic recession in the wake of the bursting of the dot-com bubble.[98] The terrorist attacks also impacted the economy. His administration increased federal government spending from $1.789 trillion to $2.983 trillion (60 percent), while revenues increased from $2.025 trillion to $2.524 trillion (from 2000 to 2008). Individual income tax revenues increased by 14 percent, corporate tax revenues by 50 percent, customs and duties by 40 percent. Discretionary defense spending was increased by 107 percent, discretionary domestic spending by 62 percent, Medicare spending by 131 percent, social security by 51 percent, and income security spending by 130 percent. Cyclically adjusted, revenues rose by 35 percent and spending by 65 percent.[99]
The increase in spending was more than under any predecessor since Lyndon B. Johnson.[100] The number of economic regulation governmental workers increased by 91,196.[101]
The surplus in fiscal year 2000 was $237 billion—the third consecutive surplus and the largest surplus ever.[102] In 2001, Bush's budget estimated that there would be a $5.6 trillion surplus over the next ten years.[103] Facing congressional opposition, Bush held townhall style meetings across the U.S. in order to increase public support for his plan for a $1.35 trillion tax cut program—one of the largest tax cuts in U.S. history.[52] Bush argued that unspent government funds should be returned to taxpayers, saying "the surplus is not the government's money. The surplus is the people's money."[52] Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned of a recession and Bush stated that a tax cut would stimulate the economy and create jobs.[104] Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill, opposed some of the tax cuts on the basis that they would contribute to budget deficits and undermine Social Security.[105] O'Neill disputes the claim, made in Bush's book Decision Points, that he never openly disagreed with him on planned tax cuts.[106] By 2003, the economy showed signs of improvement, though job growth remained stagnant.[52] Another tax cut program was passed that year.
During the 2001 to 2008 years, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.125 percent,[107] less than for past business cycles.[108] Bush entered office with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10,587, and the average peaked in October 2007 at over 14,000. When Bush left office, the average was at 7,949, one of the lowest levels of his presidency.[109] Only four other US presidents have left office with the stock market lower than when they began.[110]
Unemployment originally rose from 4.2 percent in January 2001 to 6.3 percent in June 2003, but subsequently dropped to 4.5 percent as of July 2007.[111] Adjusted for inflation, median household income dropped by $1,175 between 2000 and 2007,[112] while Professor Ken Homa of Georgetown University has noted that "Median real after-tax household income went up 2 percent".[113] The poverty rate increased from 11.3 percent in 2000 to 12.3 percent in 2006 after peaking at 12.7 percent in 2004.[114] By October 2008, due to increases in spending,[115] the national debt had risen to $11.3 trillion,[116] an increase of over 100 percent from 2000 when the debt was only $5.6 trillion.[117][118] Most debt was accumulated as a result of what became known as the "Bush tax cuts" and increased national security spending.[119] In March 2006, then-Senator Barack Obama said when he voted against raising the debt ceiling: "The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure."[120] By the end of Bush's presidency, unemployment climbed to 7.2 percent.[121]
In December 2007, the United States entered the longest post–World War II recession,[97] which included a housing market correction, a subprime mortgage crisis, soaring oil prices, and a declining dollar value.[122] In February, 63,000 jobs were lost, a five-year record.[123][124] To aid with the situation, Bush signed a $170 billion economic stimulus package which was intended to improve the economic situation by sending tax rebate checks to many Americans and providing tax breaks for struggling businesses. The Bush administration pushed for significantly increased regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2003,[125] and after two years, the regulations passed the House but died in the Senate. Many Republican senators, as well as influential members of the Bush Administration, feared that the agency created by these regulations would merely be mimicking the private sector's risky practices.[126][127][128] In September 2008, the crisis became much more serious beginning with the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac followed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and a federal bailout of American International Group for $85 billion.[129]
Many economists and world governments determined that the situation had become the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.[130][131] Additional regulation over the housing market would have been beneficial, according to former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.[132] Bush, meanwhile, proposed a financial rescue plan to buy back a large portion of the U.S. mortgage market.[133] Vince Reinhardt, a former Federal Reserve economist now at the American Enterprise Institute, said "it would have helped for the Bush administration to empower the folks at Treasury and the Federal Reserve and the comptroller of the currency and the FDIC to look at these issues more closely", and additionally, that it would have helped "for Congress to have held hearings".[127]
In November 2008, over 500,000 jobs were lost, which marked the largest loss of jobs in the United States in 34 years.[134] The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in the last four months of 2008, 1.9 million jobs were lost.[135] By the end of 2008, the U.S. had lost a total of 2.6 million jobs.[136]
Education and health
Bush undertook a number of educational agendas, such as increasing the funding for the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health in his first years of office, and creating education programs to strengthen the grounding in science and mathematics for American high school students. Funding for the NIH was cut in 2006, the first such cut in 36 years, due to rising inflation.[137]
One of the administration's early major initiatives was the No Child Left Behind Act, which aimed to measure and close the gap between rich and poor student performance, provide options to parents with students in low-performing schools, and target more federal funding to low-income schools. This landmark education initiative passed with broad bipartisan support, including that of Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts.[138] It was signed into law by Bush in early 2002.[139] Many contend that the initiative has been successful, as cited by the fact that students in the U.S. have performed significantly better on state reading and math tests since Bush signed "No Child Left Behind" into law.[140] Critics argue that it is underfunded[141] and that NCLBA's focus on "high-stakes testing" and quantitative outcomes is counterproductive.[142]
After being re-elected, Bush signed into law a Medicare drug benefit program that, according to Jan Crawford, resulted in "the greatest expansion in America's welfare state in forty years" – the bill's costs approached $7 trillion.[143] In 2007, Bush opposed and vetoed State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) legislation, which was added by the Democrats onto a war funding bill and passed by Congress. The SCHIP legislation would have significantly expanded federally funded health care benefits and plans to children of some low-income families from about six million to ten million children. It was to be funded by an increase in the cigarette tax.[144] Bush viewed the legislation as a move toward socialized health care, and asserted that the program could benefit families making as much as $83,000 per year who did not need the help.[145]
Social services and Social Security
Following Republican efforts to pass the Medicare Act of 2003, Bush signed the bill, which included major changes to the Medicare program by providing beneficiaries with some assistance in paying for prescription drugs, while relying on private insurance for the delivery of benefits.[146] The retired persons lobby group AARP worked with the Bush Administration on the program and gave their endorsement. Bush said the law, estimated to cost $400 billion over the first ten years, would give the elderly "better choices and more control over their health care".[147]
Bush began his second term by outlining a major initiative to "reform" Social Security,[148] which was facing record deficit projections beginning in 2005. Bush made it the centerpiece of his domestic agenda despite opposition from some in the U.S. Congress.[148] In his 2005 State of the Union Address, Bush discussed the potential impending bankruptcy of the program and outlined his new program, which included partial privatization of the system, personal Social Security accounts, and options to permit Americans to divert a portion of their Social Security tax (FICA) into secured investments.[148] Democrats opposed the proposal to partially privatize the system.[148]
Bush embarked on a 60-day national tour, campaigning for his initiative in media events known as "Conversations on Social Security" in an attempt to gain public support.[149] Nevertheless, public support for the proposal declined,[150] and the House Republican leadership decided not to put Social Security reform on the priority list for the remainder of their 2005 legislative agenda.[151] The proposal's legislative prospects were further diminished by autumn 2005 due to political fallout from the response to Hurricane Katrina.[152] After the Democrats gained control of both houses of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections, there was no prospect of further congressional action on the Bush proposal for the remainder of his term in office.
Legacy
President Bush's legacy continues to develop today. Supporters credit Bush's counterterrorism policies with preventing another major terrorist attack from occurring in the US after 9/11 and also praise individual policies such as the Medicare prescription drug benefit and the AIDS relief program known as PEPFAR. Critics often point to his handling of the Iraq War, specifically the failure to find weapons of mass destruction, that were the main rationale behind the initial invasion—as well as his handling of tax policy, Hurricane Katrina, climate change and the 2008 financial crisis—as proof that George W. Bush was unfit to be president.[452][453][454]
Several historians and commentators hold the view that Bush was one of the most consequential presidents in American history. Princeton University scholar Julian Zelizer described Bush's presidency as a "transformative" one, and said that "some people hate him, some people love him, but I do think he'll have a much more substantive perception as time goes on".[455] Bryon Williams of The Huffington Post referred to Bush as "the most noteworthy president since FDR" and said that the Patriot Act "increased authority of the executive branch at the expense of judicial opinions about when searches and seizures are reasonable" as evidence.[456] Bush's administration presided over the largest tax cuts since the presidency of Ronald Reagan,[457] and his homeland security reforms proved to be the most significant expansion of the federal government since the Great Society.[458] Much of these policies have endured in the administrations of his two immediate successors, Barack Obama and Donald Trump.[459][460] A 2010 Siena Research Institute survey of the opinions of historians, political scientists, and presidential scholars ranked him 39th out of 43 presidents. The survey respondents gave President Bush low ratings on his handling of the U.S. economy, communication, ability to compromise, foreign policy accomplishments, and intelligence.[461]
Among the public, his reputation has improved somewhat since his presidency ended in 2009. In February 2012, Gallup reported that "Americans still rate George W. Bush among the worst presidents, though their views have become more positive in the three years since he left office."[462] Gallup had earlier noted that Bush's favorability ratings in public opinion surveys had begun to rise a year after he had left office, from 40 percent in January 2009 and 35 percent in March 2009, to 45 percent in July 2010, a period during which he had remained largely out of the news.[463] Other pollsters have noted similar trends of slight improvement in Bush's personal favorability since the end of his presidency.[464] In April 2013, Bush's approval rating stood at 47 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval in a poll jointly conducted for The Washington Post and ABC, his highest approval rating since December 2005. Bush had achieved notable gains among seniors, non-college whites, and moderate and conservative Democrats since leaving office, although majorities disapproved of his handling of the economy (53 percent) and the Iraq War (57 percent).[465] His 47 percent approval rating was equal to that of President Obama's in the same polling period.[466] A CNN poll conducted that same month found that 55 percent of Americans said Bush's presidency had been a failure, with opinions divided along party lines, and 43 percent of independents calling it a success.[467] Bush's public image saw greater improvement starting in 2017, which has been interpreted as Democrats viewing him more favorably in response to Donald Trump's presidency,[468][469] an assessment that has also been expressed by Bush himself.[470]
