Wednesday, February 11, 2015

The Presidential Commission

In the United States, a Presidential Commission is a special task force ordained by the President to complete some special research or investigation.  They are often used politically in one of two ways:  either to draw attention to a problem (the publication of a report by a commission can generally be counted on to draw attention from the media, depending on how its release is handled); or, on the other hand, to delay action on an issue (if the President wants to avoid taking action but still look concerned about an issue, he can convene a commission and then let it slip into obscurity).  However, there have been cases (the Tower, Rogers and Warren Commissions) where the commission has created reports that have been used as evidence in later criminal proceedings.

The National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling is a bipartisan presidential commission, established by Executive Order 13543 signed by Barack Obama on May 21, 2010, that is “tasked with providing recommendations on how the United States can prevent and mitigate the impact of any future spills that result from offshore drilling.”  It came about as a result of the April 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill.  The first public hearings, held on July 12 and 13, 2010 in New Orleans, included scheduled testimony from Federal government officials and representatives of BP on the status of the spill and clean-up efforts, as well as from local officials, community leaders, and scientists on the economic, cultural, and ecological impacts of the oil spill on Gulf Coast communities and ecosystems.
On October 6, 2010 the commission released preliminary reports criticizing the Obama administration for mismanagement of its response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.  Amongst other things cited were, not being fully candid with the American people, and giving the impression of not being fully competent.
On January 11, 2011, the commission released its final report,[6] with recommendations to Congress for new spending and regulations.[7]

The commissioners presented their findings to President Obama and several top advisers on Tuesday afternoon.  The president said he was working to adopt many of their recommendations but also noted that any actions requiring new financing and regulations would be a hard sell in the current Congress, said William K. Reilly, co-chairman of the commission and a former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.

David Gergen was the first, and only, person I heard ask, “When is the Commission going to be established?”  I wasn’t aware that one was.  Once that I found that a Commission was established, I was going to look at the membership and show that nobody had the background necessary to see the Federal Government’s Command and Control failures.  For perhaps the third time in my life, I was wrong.

The above information is from Wikipedia and the New York Times (reference 7 in Wikipedia).  Reference 6 leads to http://www.oilspillcommission.gov/sites/default/files/documents/DEEPWATER_ReporttothePresident_FINAL.pdf

The members of the Obama Commission panel to investigate the Gulf Oil spill are listed by Wikipedia as:
·         Bob Graham, former Governor of Florida and U.S. Senator (co-chair)
·         Frances G. Beinecke, President of Natural Resources Defense Council
·         Terry D. Garcia, Executive Vice President for Mission Programs for the National Geographic Society
·         Cherry A. Murray, Dean of the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and John A. and Elizabeth S. Armstrong Professor of Engineering and Applied Sciences
·         Frances Ulmer, Chancellor of the University of Alaska Anchorage and former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska


Where was Brian Williams on January 11, 2011?

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Measles, White House, and Surgeon General

The science is clear, vaccinations protect a population from measles.

Where is CINC Obama on this?  Where is the Surgeon General?  Who is the Surgeon General?

Schools, counties, and states should be able to mandate medical care.  The Federal Government should not.  Repeal ObamaCare.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Strict Theory vs Just a Theory

Bill Nye's, the science guy, book,UNDENIABLE, addresses the evidence supporting evolution as a theory.

Theists despise Secular Humanism (aka France).

Some theists realize that the Big Bang is compatible with the concept of our world having a beginning.

My former father-in-law is/was such a theist.

The youth pastor at our in Florida church referred to evolution as "just a theory" in a sermon at our church in 2006.  I feel that referring to General Relativity and Quantum Electrodynamics as "just theories" is approximately equivalent to saying that Christianity is "just a Myth".

The best description of the proper role of theory that I have encountered is in William Feller's two volume work on Probability.  Copyrights should be outlawed for policy statements (e.g. General Petraeus would not state strategy in "his own words") and good technical writing.  Any changes from the "best version" degrades the communication and the concept.

Footnote on page 3 of Volume II of "An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications," William Feller.


The roles of rigor and intuition are subject to misconceptions.  As was pointed out in volume I, natural intuition and natural thinking are a poor affair, but they gain strength with the development of mathematical theory.  Today's intuition and applications depend on the most sophisticated theories of yesterday.  Furthermore, strict theory represents economy of thought rather than luxury.  Indeed, experience shows that in applications most people rely on lengthy calculations rather than simple arguments because these appear risky.  [The nearest illustration is in example 5(a).]

In volume I, Feller (page 4) states, "It must be understood, however, that we are concerned not with modes of inductive reasoning but with something that might be called physical or statistical probability.  In a rough way we may characterize this concept by saying that our probabilities do not refer to judgments but to possible outcomes of a conceptual experiment.  Before we speak of probabilities, we must agree on an idealized model of a particular conceptual experiment such as tossing a coin, sampling kangaroos on the moon, observing a particle under diffusion, counting the number of telephone calls.  At the outset we must agree on the possible outcomes of this experiment (our sample space) and the probabilities associated with them.....

In physics and chemistry, the ideal gas law represents economy of thought and includes mathematical rigor.  Economy of thought and minimal data are used to show that the Patriots nor Tom Brady were caught cheating in #DeflateGate.

The mathematical formula is PV=nRT.

The data needed for a baseline calculation consists of the following:

Atmospheric pressure = 14.7 lbs/in**2

Temperature at deflation observation = 51

Temperature at "room temperature/inspection":  72

Pressure requirement at inspection:  13.5 to 12.5 lbs/in**2

Tom Brady made it clear in his 1 hour interview on the topic that he prefers the lower part of the range.

To use the equation, T must be with respect to absolute zero.  The Rankine temperature is measured in Fahrenheit degrees.   T = Tf + 459.67

Pressure P is equal to Gauge pressure + Atmospheric pressure 

Evolution may or may not be "just a theory" but the Big Bang, General Relativity, QED, and the ideal gas law are strict theories.

With the above data, the gauge pressure at the beginning of the second half (51 degrees F), should be 11.43 lbs/in**2.
 

Saturday, January 24, 2015

The State of the Union and the Space Elevator

President Obama's State of the Union for 2015 was a good sounding speech.  It covered enough topics for everything by the National Academy Press to be related to it (almost).

It was short on specifics.

It did not mention the Space Elevator.  The taxpayers have paid for a lot of work described in http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pd - the Space Elevator.

I was shocked to find that people where complaining on Twitter about the Space Elevator not being in #SOTUS again this year.

I saw the concept described in the August 2005 IEEE Spectrum and tried to get a friend to kill the program by describing how it is flawed.

Block II MILSTAR satelites are "low-inclination".  The MILSTAR program utilizes geosychronous orbits.  The locus of the point on the Earth which is immediately below them is a figure 8 pattern unless they are over the Equator. 



The Space Elevator is an excellent example of something that should be left to venture capitalists or Vladimir Putin.

On page 5.2 of the Final Report at http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pd an “angular momentum” problem is described.  I’m most concerned about the problem after deployment.  The angular momentum problem during use is significant.

First, the base station needs to be on the equator.  Second, we need two to maintain symmetry.  Otherwise climate will change.

The counterweight has to go around a 100,000 kilometer orbit every 24 hours.  Geosynchronous orbits are geostationary only over the Equator.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Life, Liberty, and Property

CNN's coverage of Charlie Hebdo was poor because of differences in our languages.  Wolf Blitzer used reasonable terminology when he said the US is "scouring" our databases for information on the two perpetrators.

Barbara Starr and all other reporters I heard reported that we were "scrubbing" our databases which means that we were trying to get rid of bad data.

My ex-father-in-law is a theist and I learned from him that "Secular Humanism" is the Devil Incarnate even though I didn't know what any of that meant.

The French don't think that highly of any religion.  Is there a word for sacrilegious in French?

The Merriam-Webster online dictionary includes only three antonyms for sacred:  nonreligious, profane, and secular.

As a Libertarian, I say we should focus on Government's core functions of protecting our Lives, Liberty, and Property.

Government funds should not be expended on protecting "In Your Face Protesters" such as most of the Political Correctness advocates, Al Sharpeton, and radical feminists.

If we can't communicate mundane stuff like looking through our databases, how can we hope to understand important stuff if there is a God?





Friday, January 9, 2015

Scouring vs Scrubbing

Communication is a process described by Parsons and Perry in the 1960s.  I will address that some other place or time.

An United States Air Force Colonel gets credit in online command and control literature for the OODA process.

I heard reports yesterday that the FBI was "scrubbing the database" for information on the Charlie Hebdo terrorists.

Scouring their database would mean they are looking at it intensely.  Scrubbing a database used to mean purging it of bad data.

Wolf Blitzer used reasonable terminology on the Situation Room yesterday.  Barbara Starr and all others I heard did not.

Does the Department of Defense translator for French to English know how to do his/her job?

I can imagine a language specialist not knowing the the implications of translating a request from the French to intensely search our databases.

Inteeroperability is still a problem.