I Remember When

Questions at a Presidential News Conference were short.

The Presidential Commission

In the United States, a Presidential Commission is a special task force ordained by the President to complete some special research or investigation.  They are often used politically in one of two ways:  either to draw attention to a problem (the publication of a report by a commission can generally be counted on to draw attention from the media, depending on how its release is handled); or, on the other hand, to delay action on an issue (if the President wants to avoid taking action but still look concerned about an issue, he can convene a commission and then let it slip into obscurity).  However, there have been cases (the Tower, Rogers and Warren Commissions) where the commission has created reports that have been used as evidence in later criminal proceedings.

The National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling is a bipartisan presidential commission, established by Executive Order 13543 signed by Barack Obama on May 21, 2010, that is “tasked with providing recommendations on how the United States can prevent and mitigate the impact of any future spills that result from offshore drilling.”  It came about as a result of the April 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill.  The first public hearings, held on July 12 and 13, 2010 in New Orleans, included scheduled testimony from Federal government officials and representatives of BP on the status of the spill and clean-up efforts, as well as from local officials, community leaders, and scientists on the economic, cultural, and ecological impacts of the oil spill on Gulf Coast communities and ecosystems.

On October 6, 2010 the commission released preliminary reports criticizing the Obama administration for mismanagement of its response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.  Amongst other things cited were, not being fully candid with the American people, and giving the impression of not being fully competent.

On January 11, 2011, the commission released its final report,^[6] with recommendations to Congress for new spending and regulations.^[7]

The commissioners presented their findings to President Obama and several top advisers on Tuesday afternoon.  The president said he was working to adopt many of their recommendations but also noted that any actions requiring new financing and regulations would be a hard sell in the current Congress, said William K. Reilly, co-chairman of the commission and a former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.

David Gergen was the first, and only, person I heard ask, “When is the Commission going to be established?”  I wasn’t aware that one was.  Once that I found that a Commission was established, I was going to look at the membership and show that nobody had the background necessary to see the Federal Government’s Command and Control failures.  For perhaps the third time in my life, I was wrong.

The above information is from Wikipedia and the New York Times (reference 7 in Wikipedia).  Reference 6 leads to http://www.oilspillcommission.gov/sites/default/files/documents/DEEPWATER_ReporttothePresident_FINAL.pdf

The members of the Obama Commission panel to investigate the Gulf Oil spill are listed by Wikipedia as:

·         Bob Graham, former Governor of Florida and U.S. Senator (co-chair)

·         William K. Reilly, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (co-chair)

·         Frances G. Beinecke, President of Natural Resources Defense Council

·         Donald Boesch, President of University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

·         Terry D. Garcia, Executive Vice President for Mission Programs for the National Geographic Society

·         Cherry A. Murray, Dean of the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and John A. and Elizabeth S. Armstrong Professor of Engineering and Applied Sciences

·         Frances Ulmer, Chancellor of the University of Alaska Anchorage and former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska

Where was Brian Williams on January 11, 2011?

Is North Korea Responsible?

There are two possibilities:

North Korea is responsible for the SONY attack.  If so, they deserve the difficulty that they are having now.

North Korea is not responsible for the SONY attack.  Then they do not deserve the difficulty they are having now at least for the SONY incident.

A third party could be responsible for the SONY attack and be responsible for the attack against North Korea.

There are lots of possibilities.

Certainty only exists when only one party has the capabilities necessary to perform an act.

I suspect the US is responsible for North Korea's current difficulties.  It's much more pleasurable for President Obama to deal with that than it is for him to deal with two NYPD policemen murdered over the weekend.

The timing was just a few minutes after Barack Obama's claiming that by any measure 2014 was a good year.

Police killings were way up over the whole country in 2014.

Shouldn't it be CINC Obama rather than the FBI

The Huffingpost is reporting that the FBI is accusing North Korea of the Sony attack.

Shouldn't it be CINC Obama?

 

Several years ago I learned that a way to combat terrorism was to punish a worthy to be punished party for one of these international incidents.

 

If you punished the wrong party, there were two parties that knew you were wrong:

 

1) the one you punished (you should pick a worthy one)

2) the guilty party.

 

If the guilty party speaks up (convincingly), you punish them.

 

Nearly all people can believe that the guilty party has been punished after step 1.  In the past, we have had a tremendous advantage in terms of identification and verification sources.

 

I can now see how this can be applied to police work.

 

1)  Round up the usual suspect

2)  Punish someone worthy of punishment

 

Johnny Cash has a song about man being executed for a murder that he didn't do.  His mother knew that he was innocent of the murder because he was robbing a train that day.  I think the character had killed a number of people.

 

The crime and punishment were justified.  They were associated with the wrong victim. 

 

No Fault -- No Alimony

Florida became a "no fault" state in Dissolution of Marriage proceedings in 1971.

A truly no fault dissolution of marriage should only address a  Fair and Equitable distribution of assets (and liabilities).

I am a victim of Domestic Abuse and Elder Abuse.

My partner made unilateral decisions concerning the religiously oriented activities our two daughters should receive.  That is classic Male Privilege.

My partner has Master's Degree from an out-of-state private university.  Her three skills that I have observed are:

1.  She is good at obtaining volunteers
2.  She's very generous with someone else's money
3.  She is good at church history.

These are appropriate skills for a Director of Christian Education (DCE).

Women are no longer limited to a DCE role; they can now compete in and for the pulpits.

Following advice that she later regretted, my partner filed for divorce in April 2009.  The matter has not been settled.

I have seen and been victimized by the best divorce lawyer in Brevard County, Diane Baccus-Horsley.  She President Obama look like a truth teller.

Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel Fired

Vice President Joe Biden is the Obama Administration's Counter-Terrorism (CT) rather than Counter-Insurgency (COIN) advocate.

POTUS can't fire VPOTUS.

Secretary Hagel was the first enlisted man to serve as Secretary of Defense.  He was a far cry from Secretary Donald Rumsfelt.

Michelle Obama is the right person to replace Hagel.

She probably has more clout than Joe Biden.

Comments on Julia Pierson's Resignation

I built on a "saying" that it takes new PhDs two years to do anything useful to "observe" that it takes about 2 years to be productive in a new job.

A US Army Colonel commented once that he always did his old job for 2 years.  He served with the Weapons Systems Evaluation Group (WSEG) which was co-located with the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) which was known as DoD's "think tank".

The US Army had the Research Analyses Corporation (RAC), the US Navy had the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), and the US Air Force had RAND which made all the others necessary.

I worked with the Army Colonel on a project for the newly established US Army Operational Test and Evaluation Agency (OTEA) while I was employed by BDM (bought TRW except automotive part) which is now Northrop-Grumman.

My model became it takes good people about a year to notice that the new job is different and about a year to "work on" the new job.  I thought "new PhDs" could probably do this.  [All particle physicists at the time were probably "bright enough" to do it.]

Charles J. DiBona, who became (former Governor of Colorado) John Love's deputy when they created the first version of the Department of Energy.  Mr. Di Bona was of the McNamara whiz kid variety who had resigned his commission in the US Navy (as a Lieutenant Commander) to become President of the CNA while I was there.

One benefit of leaving high energy physics as a profession I expected was that things could be completed in less than 5 years.

It is very difficult to see significant change in 5 years.  The easiest changes to observe are related to related to wars or terrorist acts.

Eliot Richardson was a Republican with a fabulous resume during the Nixon era but he was never anywhere long enough to do any good (or harm).

Julia Pierson accepted a very challenging job.  A change of culture is difficult and usually takes the most time.

It is difficult (but not impossible) to get Governmental action related to meeting “urgent combat needs”.  Anything else may (and should?) take a generation or more in which to observe a change.

 

Would we really want the world to know all the recent failures that have involved the Secret Service?

 

President Obama, James Clapper, and Susan Rice should resign because of obvious inability to do their respective jobs. 

 

 

 

 

Who benefits most?

The media has been focused on the loss of MH370 for two weeks.

Who benefits most, Obama or Putin?

Needed: Comprehensive Command and Control Reform

David Gergen and I saw need for improvement in the Obama administration’s response to the BP oil well disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. LTG Russell Honore, USA, (ret.) described a command and control structure for addressing the crisis during multiple interviews on CNN. I decided that Colin Powell was “the answer.” Woodward decided that Colin Powell would be the “right” person to replace Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense.

Joplin is 60 miles west of here. In less than 12 hours, Joplin had been declared a state emergency and a Federal Disaster area. Initial reports on CNN seemed to discourage local people helping out and leaving the situation to the “professional” first responders. This is counter to the local culture.

Early news coverage included statements by the Governor of Missouri, Jay Nixon, and a MG from the Missouri National Guard saying they were here to support the local authorities. By May 25, 2011, CNN was reporting that it seemed like no one was in charge. However, two parents had been kept out of the morgue for 3 days. “This is a Federal Disaster. We have to be 100% certain.”

George W. Bush was the Decider. Barack Obama is the Sage. Barack Obama is also the Commander in Chief (CINC). Since Donald Rumsfeld “transformed” our forces, CINC Obama is the only CINC. We need to UNTRANSFORM some of our forces so that we have full functional capability in general purpose command and control. We may not need to have (m)any Field Armies but we do need to have comprehensive (full functional) command and control capability.

Any task force that responds to a general disaster needs to have full functional capability.

Joplin does not have a functional integrated C3 system to include a disaster recover database.

Somebody in the system has the set of formal addresses as recognized by the USPS. Junk mailers can get access to the addresses. We have just completed a census. Sounds like what’s needed to be able to identify within 10% how many people are missing.

Joplin needs communication for cell phones and computers. The devastation is only a mile or less wide so water is accessible locally.

I have heard only one person mention on TV that search and recovery operations need to extend Eastward, perhaps to Springfield.

Joplin needs UNTRANSFORMED general purpose command and control. CINC Obama is expected Sunday.

We have spent 10 years "investing" in homeland security until we have the "Top Secret America" described in a Washington Post series a few months ago. We are heavy on the Intel. We need to reestablish an Ops capability.

The concept is simple - a rapid reaction deployable CCIS node for disaster recovery. In the GAMO and JINTACCS communities, this would be the JTF headquaters node. In WWMCCS, it would include R2DC3, DWC4, and FORWARD TALK. In NATO, it would be the MWHQ initiative of Task Force 6 (C3).

(DR)2H

Why the Obama Administration Is Impotent in the Gulf 2

Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates has demonstrated the capability to make Command decisions. He replaced the Secretary of the Army and the Army Surgeon General over the Walter Reed scandal. Now, he has proposed disestablishing the US Joint Forces Command.

When commentators such as David Gergen, CNN and LTG Russell Honore, USA (ret) on CNN were suggesting that the Obama Administration needed to improve Command and Control in responding to the Gulf of Mexico Oil Incident, Secretary Gates could offer no help from the Defense Department.

The closest to a “General Operations Command” that currently exists in the Unified Command Plan (UCP) is the United States Joint Forces Command. The same day the press reports that a woman, for the first time, is appointed to head one of the nation’s 16 intelligence agencies the Secretary of Defense proposes the disestablishment of the only command with responsibility for conventional (general purpose) forces.

Strategically, eliminating one of the major organizational elements is the fastest way to cut costs. Unless our intelligence community is smart enough to accurately identify all our threats in a timely manner, we need to maintain some general purpose forces that can be deployed to counter the actual threat that materializes – be it natural or manmade.

The Navy has traditionally resisted “jointness”. For the old LANTCOM to become the Joint (Forces) Command was asking a lot but we need something to fulfill the mission held by the Readiness Command while it was in existence.

One of the problems is that strategic people can’t understand a generic Joint Task Force. When I first read the definition of a JTF (in JCS Pub 1, I suppose), I think it included the word “temporary”.

The US Constitution empowers Congress to provide an Army and a Navy. The Federal Government is responsible for our common Defense. There is no need to invoke the Commerce Clause.

Doing away with the United States Joint Forces Command may be the smart thing to do. If so, I hope the administration does it “smartly”. I am not optimistic. I had already concluded that the Obama Administration is blind with respect to Military C2.

During the Cold War, "conventional" meant non-nuclear. The logical definition now for "conventional" appears to be non-special.

We need to maintain traditional (Army) Military Command and Control (MilC2) capability.

(DR)2H

Why the Obama Administration Is Impotent in the Gulf

The Obama Administration has no George S. Patton, Jr., Alexander M. Haig, Jr., or H. Norman Schwarzkopf, Jr., but could have Russel L. Honore.

Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates has demonstrated the capability to make Command decisions. He replaced the Secretary of the Army and the Army Surgeon General over the Walter Reed scandal.

Secretary Gates has an outstanding resume. He joined the Central Intelligence Agency in 1966 and spent nearly 27 years as an intelligence professional. During that period, he spent nearly nine years at the National Security Council, The White House, serving four presidents of both political parties.

In 2007, Sec. Gates did not renominate the first Marine to serve as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Peter Pace. Adm. Mullen was Gates’ choice for the position of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Robert Gates removed General David D. McKiernan from command in Afghanistan on May 6, 2009. Gates replaced him with LTG Stanley A. McChrystal. The Washington Post called it "a rare decision to remove a wartime commander." The Washington Post described the replacement as one of several replacements of Generals who represented the "traditional Army" with Generals "who have pressed for the use of counter-insurgency tactics." See http://bit.ly/14mM2I .

Gen. David Petraeus, USA, “wrote the book on Counter-Insurgency” but I’m not sure that VP Joe Biden and other Presidential advisors have read the book.

Where is the “traditional Army” represented? The traditional Army is the Army created in accordance with Section 8 of Article I of the Constitution. “The Congress shall have Power …To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two years.”

The Washington Post ‘s Top Secret America (http://bit.ly/9Ja5Fi ) describes how Intel has taken over since September 11, 2001.

Who could advise President Obama on protecting our coastal areas?

All the “improvements” since 9/11 made the situation more difficult for the admistration. Also, Obama has a Nobel Laureate and the National Labs helping the incident commander or whoever was in charge.

We need someone with traditional (Army) Military Command and Control experience. Particularly on the Ops side of the interface. Perhaps we should establish a GOC (General Operations Command).

(DR)2H

The OPS/INTEL Interface

In the late 1970s or early 1980s, the Ops/Intel interface was considered to be an important problem area in military command and control. Getting the right information to the right people at the right time continues to be a challenge.

For various reasons, my experience has been more on the “Ops” side than on the “Intel” side. I have tended to think of the Intel side as “arrogant” and possessing an inflated sense of self importance, consistent with the recent Gen McChrystal incident.

Willie F. Sutton would have been on the Intel side because that’s where the money is/was. The Ops side was where the “rubber meets the road” and you have to deal with reality which appeals to my physics and farm background.

I was not convinced by the “evidence” that Saddam Hussein possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction. I did not support the Invasion of Iraq. However, I have tended to agree with Senator John McCain on troop strength and withdrawal.

When I started this blog, I intended to focus on “the incident” in the Gulf of Mexico. President Obama and the USA need advice from people experienced in general purpose military command and control. They need someone with experience in “decentralized execution”. They need someone with experience in large-scale operations on the “Ops” side of the interface. Special operations tend not to be large scale and get “special” treatment.

The Obama Administration’s policy on the Gulf “incident” is that it is “new” which means that he and his staff will make mistakes. One of them is that he has not decentralized control enough to allow anyone to do anything in a reasonable time. Basically, the top will make mistakes but no one below will (except not do something.) There was an election. Obama gets to make the mistakes not the States, the Parishes, or the (little) people.

Parsons and Perry wrote a report (Concepts for Command and Control Systems) for Systems Development Corporation dated December 23, 1965, which outlines a model of the military process consisting of five functions (sense, analyze, decide, act, communicate) at command points. The short version is “assess the situation and take appropriate action”. The Obama version at the lower levels is “Update the Plan and Resubmit”.

The McChrystal incident caught my attention and caused me to do research on General Petraeus who “wrote the book on CounterInsurgency”. I’ve now gotten better informed on Counter Insurgency versus Counter Terrorism. I will comment on that more in a later blog.

Peter Beinart says that the most impolitic thing that McChrystal himself said was that he feels hectored by Holbrooke. http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-06-23/general-mcchrystal-failing-to-follow-obamas-afghan-policy/.

The article goes on to say that Obama should fire Gen. McChrystal for the difference in policy. The article discusses how McChrystal pushed for a Counter Insurgency policy.

We could use a good Army General’s input with respect to the Gulf Incident. I recommended Colin Powell earlier. David Petraeus would be a good candidate but not filtered through a Marine (James Jones or James Mattis).

Obama needs help with tactical military C2. A Navy blimp has arrived in the Gulf area. The Army used to use Balloons for artillery observers. Neither the Oil nor the Dispersant shoots at these.

(DR)2H

Obama needs someone like Colin Powell

I have been trying to help our country improve tactical C2 in the Gulf of Mexico region. Now, the schism with Gen. McChrystal extends the need for military C2 to theater level.

I am 70 years old, served in the MO Army National Guard, was an Analyst for the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), the US Navy's think tank, I was a part of the Ground Combat Section of the Marine Corps Operations Analysis Group (MCOAG). I was the national specialist on Amphibious operations (NWP-22B and LFM-01). I went to Vietnam as a part of my work for MCOAG on the Mine and Booby Trap problem.

I completed the Counter-Insurgency Course for Senior Officers at Quantico.

I have a PhD from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in Experimental Elementary Particle Physics. I have experience with Quantum Mechanics and Relativity. The big names in physics in those days were Schwinger, Feynman, Yang, Lee, Gell-mann, and a fellow on the west coast who spelled his name Chew. That Chew was brilliant but never won a Nobel Prize.

I spent 27 years inside the DC beltway. I discovered the Cato Institute while they were in San Francisco. I have worked for CNA, the National Academy of Sciences, the Dept of Army, BDM and TRW which are now a part of Northrop Grumman, Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) all in the DC area and Harris Corporation in Melbourne, FL.

When I was with CNA, I worked mostly for the Marines Corps Group but I did a little bit of nuclear work for a Navy Group.

During the Carter administration, I supported NATO Initiatives and was a major contributor to Measure 6B8. I was the initial Program Manager of BDM’s contract to develop the Technical Interface Design Plan – Test Edition for the GAMO Program. This was the first joint full spectrum tactical command and control program. I also supported the collection and processing of the Joint Operational Information Requirements for the World Wide Military Command and Control System (WWMCCS) Information System (WIS).

The short version is that I have experience with all of our military and naval services including helping develop the Reserve Component Automation System (RCAS) to support Mobilization and Sustainment.

A week or so ago, I started sending out tweets with #milc2 in them for military C2 mostly related to the Gulf. I peaked at 5 followers. I think I'm down to 3 now.

I watch CNN regularly. My home area here in Missouri is strongly Republican. I tend to agree with David Gergen on almost everything.

I was chairman of the Tactical C3 working group in the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). I have tactical, theater, and strategic C2 experience.

The Obama Administration needs assistance with large scale tactical military C2. I think I can communicate with Chu. I am willing to help in whatever ways I can.

Our country needs Colin Powell to serve as an advisor to the President on military command and control matters. I came to this conclusion based only on the need to address the Deepwater Horizon incident (BP Oil Spill) in the Gulf of Mexico. LTG Russel Honore, USA (ret.) makes a lot of sense when he speaks on the situation in the Gulf to CNN.

Our country needs a Military Officer in Obama’s inner circle. Someone of 4 star level in the Army (preferably) or the Air Force needs to be there. General James L. Jones, USMC (retired) was commissioned as a Marine officer. Marines come (and go) under the Secretary of Navy. Our Vice President’s son was a Marine. Adm Thad Allen is US Coast Guard. The US Army needs to be represented.

Donald R. Hodge, PhD.